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Russian Demographics in Preliminary data for is in. There were about 1,, Consequently, the rate of natural increase declined from 5, 0. The population was estimated at ,, as of Jan 1, , up from ,, exactly one year ago.
This implies about , long-term net immigration. Russian fertility fell off a cliff in the second half of , though there are tentative signs that it may have bottomed out in recent months. Monthly births in Russia, , with yearly moving average. Monthly births in Russia percent change year-on-year , , with yearly moving average. Russia Total Fertility Rate children per woman , This is a disappointing development if it represents a new normal.
First, whereas Russia was doing significantly better than most of the rest of Eastern Europe see the map right , and showed tentative signs of breaking out into the high-fertility category of European countries e.
Scandinavia, France, the British Isles , this has now been postponed — possibly indefinitely. Second, whereas before Russia was firmly on my Medium scenario for natality and High scenario for mortality …. The death rate troughs at The birth rate peaks at Then it falls slowly to mn by Positive natural increase is never attained.
Curiously, this seems to be a global pattern. Abortion in Russia continues to decline to normal country levels. Russia abortions as percentage of live births. This is still about x higher than in most of Western Europe and the US , but Russia is longer the absolute outlier it once was. Russia life expectancy, As has usually been the case, this was accompanied by continued strong decreases in deaths from external causes.
This includes deaths from murder, suicide, and deaths from alcohol poisonings, the latter of which drives a great deal of Russian mortality in general.
What I wrote in my demographic update last year is as relevant as ever: One way of looking at this is that mortality trends in Russia are basically tracking improvements in the ex-Soviet Baltics and the City of Moscow with a lag of ten years, so there is good reason to expect this trend will continue. According to calculations by the demographer Alexander Nemtsov, something like a third of Russian mortality around could be attributed to it. As alcohol abuse fell, so did all of the other components of mortality, especially those most strongly associated with it, i.
Part of this reduction was due to cultural change, including the realities of life under capitalism if you turn up to work drunk, you can be fired, unlike under socialism , part of it was due to economics more diversity of choice , and part of it was thanks to specific Kremlin policies, such as steady increases in the excise tax on alcohol and restrictions on alcohol advertising. Homicide rates are at 6. France is the same green as Turkey and North Africa on that map, probably because the people having children in France are from those same lands.
The same for Britain, there is no doubt in me that it is greenish because of immigrant and miscegenation births. Poland is shocking, I did not know they had such a low rate, they really need to start doing real conservative stuff like having babies, if their current government is supposed to be conservative what have they been doing about this?
It might be interesting to see what the birth and fertility rates are if we remove the fertility superstar regions of the country populated with non-Russians. I guess it would take an hour or two to go through the public data and work out this out.
The regions in Russia with the highest birthrates and fertility rates, are majority populated not by Russians. My view is that stable population, or even small decline, is not that bad. For example, Russia with million people would still be similar to Russia today. West is artificially pumping population with mass migration from the Third World UK, France, Scandinavia — is that better than small decrease?
Or Germany with 60 million? Life expectancy in was the same as in , the year Obama assumed office. While the decrease of was mirrored in most other developed countries unusually strong flu season , they recovered in The gap between the US and the rest of the developed countries was nonexistent until , grew to a bit more than 2 years in and since then rapidly shot up to 3.
Since , life expectancy in the US has grown by 0. And it looks like will see another drop in life expectancy, at least according to the preliminary age adjuste death rates: It was mostly the young dying more frequently that brought life expectancy down the second year in a row:. Stable or falling populations generally increase per capita incomes. Also the effects on age structure of a population of aging population , can eventually increase the age-dependency ratio, which increases the tax burden on the working population.
Poland is shocking, I did not know they had such a low rate, they really need to start doing real conservative stuff like having babies. Yeah it would be a nightmare for the Polish people if they had to deal with more open spaces, lower costs of living, a higher GDP per capita and other terrors associated with having a smaller population. I talked earlier about Russophobia in the US and how it really is just about Trump.
They are saying that the reason the House GOP is trying to sabotage the Mueller investigation is not because they are trying to protect Trump, per se, but rather because the House Republicans themselves are also colluding with Russia.
You are assuming that there is an asymptotic trend towards a stable population number rather than a Darwinian dying out of an unfit population.
Your map is somewhat out of date. Poland has seen significant rises in birth rates over the past few years. Our crude birth rate is now Additionally, we have not seen a decline in birth rates in , though the total births did rise slower than in This is likely due to A a strong economy and B increased incentives for child-rearing.
Real household income really took a deep dive:. Fertility trends are quite sensitive to income in societies which are not very religious. In the US, child support was not great from an economic PoV, but they always had a large religious population which propped up the birth rate regardless.
As atheism spreads, particularly among the under which is the population that matters for fertility, for obvious reasons , this is now declining in the US, too. France has not been very religious for many years now, and neither has Scandinavia, but their economic systems encourage natality. For poorer countries such as Poland or Russia, temporary economic fortunes matter more since the ground-level welfare support is still quite modest, at best.
Russia may be more religious than many countries, but it is my impression that religion is still quite shallow there, same as in Poland. It is often an identity marker for people and religious communion peaks around various holidays but day-to-day religious influence seems to me to be low in Russia.
I could be wrong, but that is my impression at least. Israel is a hyper-religious society by contrast. Even the secular Jews pump out 2. Fertility seems to be crashing easier than it is building. Real wages are already increasing by a healthy margin according to Rosstat. Korea is going the East Asian way in an extreme manner. From , thousands births in up to , last year.
As has ben pointed out on this blog several times Korea seems to be a role model for China. Russia has relatively low debt, so the debt-to-GDP ratio is less important. This a favourite of open borders proponents, but it is a theory with no basis in reality.
No advanced society has ever experienced a real shortage of people willing to work. With automation, people living longer, etc…there is no shortage of available and willing workers. It is mostly light mental work in offices using equipment and systems.
There is no way one can run out of people willing to do that kind of work. I have actually thought about that — seeing some of our fellow citizens one almost has to. But with proper incentives, ability to work and earn good living, form families, large percentage of those who appear as end-of-liners can prosper.
I am not optimistic, not really. And it might succeed, definitely in the core parts of the West. The current government is the first ever Polish government doing anything about this. They were saying it was absolute last time to do anything in Unfortunately, I doubt that. Well, we are already hearing that tomatoes are rotting in the fields, or something… The enterpreneurs are complaining that they have to raise the salaries and are less competetive — in the marker where the EU attacks Polish companies in every industry where we are achieve success The transportation is the most recent example.
How our companies dare to dominate the market?? We were supposed to be only a source of a cheap labour! Three years ago, the economist Henri Sterdyniak sounded the alarm bell. Mr Hollande, under pressure to cut the deficit, broke a taboo: Yet those policies also risk alienating those families by fuelling the feeling that they are bearing most of the welfare costs while not receiving much in return, Mr Sterdyniak said this week.
But fertility is less pressing an issue than pensions and Mr Macron is unlikely to reverse the move away from the generous postwar family policy. The most pro-life thing a person can do is to have children. In the past, parents raised large families on less than we have today. It did not end well. Increasing the number of unwanted children is not something that should be supported.
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