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This article is a Community Post written by guest contributor Dan Richards. Coming into the season, Zack Godley was one of the most hyped sleeper pitchers in fantasy baseball. And with good reason, as he finished with a 3.
The knock on most groundball pitchers, though, is that they run up a high WHIP and fail to accrue enough strikeouts to be true fantasy aces. Zack Godley had neither of those problems, as he was able to pair his groundball rate with a And with a Godley has not been the breakout sleeper his fantasy owners paid for on draft day. Both his strikeouts and swinging strike rate have perceptively decreased, accompanied by an increase in contact rate.
His batting average against increased from. All of this begs the question: Also, for some reason, Godley is walking more batters than last year.
His walk rate is up by 3. I think looking more carefully at his plate discipline metrics might have our answer as to why.
Batters are swinging at his pitches thrown outside the zone Godley predominantly relies on three pitches: He also has a changeup that only accounts for 4. The only change in his arsenal from last year is that he traded some changeups for more curveballs 7. These aces throw fastballs in the zone so they can then induce swings out of the zone with their off-speed pitches.
After seeing a fastball for an early strike, batters will expect another fastball, mistaking an off-speed pitch for one and swinging too high or too early. Batters have caught up. The resulting decline in swing rate has depressed his whiff rate 2. Intuitively, this makes sense. Batters wait on the curve that he throws in the dirt, get in more favorable counts where they can see easier pitches to hit, and swing accordingly, decreasing their overall whiff rate.
By swinging at better pitches, they make more contact on their swings. Godley starts the at bat with a lucky called strike on the outside corner.
Both are clearly balls, and consequently neither induces a swing from Mesoraco. Now, down in the count, he goes back to the sinker but misses inside. Finally, he wastes another pitch by spiking a fastball to walk Mesoraco. Five straight pitches thrown out of the zone; zero swings.
The chase rate on the pitch currently sits at All of this has contributed to the pVAL on his curveball dropping from But Corbin effectively has two different sliders that he varies in speed, using one to set up the other, and Godley only has one iteration of his curveball.
And McCullers, despite throwing his curve Godley needs a get-me-over pitch, something he can throw for a strike to get ahead in the count and set up a chase on the curve. He could throw more curveballs for strikes, but that might come at the cost of further weakening his best out pitch.
It appears that Godley considered throwing more sinkers too, going to his sinker at a more normal However, Godley used it only at the expense of his cutter, which he threw for only Perhaps if he instead traded curves for sinkers and maintained his cutter usage he would have gotten better results. This is a classic sophomore slump: In fact, his zone rate then was the 11th lowest in the majors min. All of this is to say that I remain concerned, especially given the walks and the low swing rate.
Dan is a lifelong Yankees and New York Giants fan. Though a young lawyer, Dan is better known for aggressively bothering his leaguemates about trades. Left the famous Steve Finley walk-off homer game in the ninth inning to clinch the division because his Giants fan cousin was late for work.
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